Kentucky Derby Payoffs 1990-2009
2009 $2 PAYOFFS - Mine That Bird WIN $103.20For me, my Kentucky Derby wagering has been mixed. I started betting the Derby in 1988 (when my Proper Reality got fourth to Winning Colors), picked up Sunday Silence as a 3/1 winner in 1989 (yay!!), and over the last 21 Derbies my "top pick" has won 6 times, not an incredible number, but I am improving. Over the last seven years I have had 4 winners (Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Street Sense and Big Brown).
EXACTA $2,074.80
TRIFECTA $41,500.60
SUPERFECTA $557,006.40
2008 $2 PAYOFFS - Big Brown WIN $6.80
EXACTA $141.60
TRIFECTA $3,445.60
SUPERFECTA $58,747.80
2007 $2 PAYOFFS - Street Sense WIN $11.80
EXACTA $101.80
TRIFECTA $440.00
SUPERFECTA $29,046.40
2006 $2 PAYOFFS - Barbaro WIN $14.20
EXACTA $587.00
TRIFECTA $11,418.40
SUPERFECTA $59,839.00
2005 $2 PAYOFFS - Giacomo WIN $102.60
EXACTA $9,814.80
TRIFECTA $133,134.80
SUPERFECTA $864,253.50
2004 $2 PAYOFFS - Smarty Jones WIN $10.20
EXACTA $65.20
TRIFECTA $987.60
SUPERFECTA $41,380.20
2003 $2 PAYOFFS - Funny Cide WIN $27.60
EXACTA $97.00
TRIFECTA $664.80
SUPERFECTA $5,591.60
2002 $2 PAYOFFS - War Emblem WIN $43.00
EXACTA $1,300.80
TRIFECTA $18,373.20
SUPERFECTA $183,529.00
2001 $2 PAYOFFS - Monarchos WIN $23.00
EXACTA $1,229.80
TRIFECTA $12,238.40
SUPERFECTA $125,973.80
2000 $2 PAYOFFS - Fusaichi Pegasus WIN $6.60
EXACTA $66.00
TRIFECTA $435.00
SUPERFECTA $3,270.80
1999 $2 PAYOFFS - Charismatic WIN $64.60
EXACTA $727.80
TRIFECTA $5,866.20
SUPERFECTA $48,031.00
1998 $2 PAYOFFS - Real Quiet WIN $18.80
EXACTA $291.80
TRIFECTA $1,221.00
SUPERFECTA $6,014.80
1997 $2 PAYOFFS - Silver Charm WIN $10.00
EXACTA $31.00
TRIFECTA $205.40
SUPERFECTA $700.00
1996 $2 PAYOFFS - Grindstone WIN $13.80
EXACTA $61.80
TRIFECTA $600.60
SUPERFECTA $11,688.40
1995 $2 PAYOFFS - Thunder Gulch WIN $51.00
EXACTA $480.00
TRIFECTA $2,099.20
1994 $2 PAYOFFS - Go for Gin WIN $20.20
EXACTA $184.80
TRIFECTA $2,351.40
1993 $2 PAYOFFS - Sea Hero WIN $27.80
EXACTA $190.60
1992 $2 PAYOFFS - Lil E. Tee WIN $35.60
EXACTA $854.40
1991 $2 PAYOFFS - Strike the Gold WIN $11.60
EXACTA $73.40
1990 $2 PAYOFFS - Unbridled WIN $23.60
EXACTA $65.80
Interestingly, my "second picks" could have paid for a vacation home in Aruba. Check this out:
1990 - Unbridled $23.60
1995 - Thunder Gulch $51.00
1998 - Real Quiet $18.80
2001 - Monarchos $23.00
2006 - Barbaro $14.20
How I would explain my performance? My second picks are my hunch plays, where I use a little more "feel." My first picks do a lot better at Pimlico and the Preakness, where speed and brilliance is more important. Right now my top pick for "Kentucky Derby 2010" is Eskendereya and my second pick is Endorsement (the EEasy EEXacta Box?). But don't hold me to that just yet. I want to see the PPs and post draw, workouts etc. before I get too excited.
Happy Punting!
"pain and suffering" for me in 2005:
ReplyDeleteClosing Argument / All the CA horses / Afleet Alex / All the CA horses
With my top pick, i've had 2 winners in my ten years of playing the Derby (Smarty Jones & Fusaichi Pegasus), but 4 seconds @ prices:
2001: Invisible Ink 55-1
2002: Proud Citizen 23-1
2005: Closing Argument 71-1 :-(
2007: Hard Spun 10-1
and two thirds:
2003: Peace Rules 6-1
2008: Denis of Cork 27-1
(Last year, i bet Musket Man to show, but West Side Bernie was my pick going into that Derby, so i don't count it.)
You would figure i could have made some serious coin, no? Yet in each year, they are the ONLY one of my top three picks to be in the top 4. (Save 2005, where my picks ran 2-3-4) So if you need a for sure horse for the super, take my top pick and toss the rest. :-)
I started betting The Kentucky Derby in 1992 and it's been mostly heartbreak for me.
ReplyDeleteMy "WORST" bet ever: A four horse wheel with Go For Gin +3 others on top of ALL but Strodes Creek/ALL/ALL. I had $1,600 in super exotics, mostly superfectas. I was watching from Belmont Park and screaming the whole race. Go For Gin wired it and I was looking to score at least $80,000 until Strodes Creek (whose trainer was 2/5 with Derby entries) nabbed second even though it was only his fourth race and he hadn't raced as a two year old. WORST. DAY. EVER.
My sharpest pick was singling out Thunder Gulch at 25-1 (I had NO MONEY to bet on him. Just a $5 win bet!) I loved his initial 3 year old preps and by the time he 'bounced' in the much overrated Blue Grass Stakes where he came in 4th he had already proven to be tough and tenacious as he easily proved throughout his quest for the Triple Crown.
Another favorite of mine was the determined Silver Charm, who was terrific in his bid for the Triple Crown with scintillating performances in the Derby and Preakness before giving way to Touch Gold in the Belmont.
I absolutely LOVED Street Sense and knew he would win for at least 6 months before the big day. That was one of the most thrilling races I've ever seen. His 10 length BC juvenile race demonstrated that he had the ability to CRUSH a big field.
Also foolishly tried to beat Fuschaishi Pegasus, Big Brown, and Real Quiet.
The KD is still the toughest and most challenging race to handicap because so many questions remain unanswered until that day. Still can't wrap my mind around victories by Sea Hero, Mine That Bird, Animal Kingdom, War Emblem, and Giacomo (although his win validated Holy Bull and Mike Smith, who has many stories like that: Drosselmeyer being the latest...)
To me, the biggest anomaly in the Triple Crown races in MY lifetime have been the success of the super long shots Birdstone, Grindstone, Mine That Bird, and Summer Bird all looked like crap on paper and all had brilliant come from behind how in the hell did they win Triple Crown races. Grindstone killed me in his photo finish in the Derby. And Birdstone broke a lot of hearts when he defeated Smarty Jones in one of the most grueling stretch drives in KD history. You can hear the disgust and incredulity in Tom Durkin's exhilarating and exasperating race call.