Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Late Pick 4 (R6-R9) - Prairie Meadows - Iowa Festival - June 28, 2013
It's time for the Iowa Festival of Racing! And that means a few good horses running in shorts fields for great money.
R6 - Saylorville Stakes (Race restricted to Fillies and Mares) - Purse $100k
This is a contentious field, with every horse having a chance. Most of the mares know only one way to go - to the lead! As such, I will go with classy midpack-running animal #5 BEAT THE BLUES as my top pick, as she can close off fast fractions. She likes to win too - 10 wins in 24 starts while racing in top company.
#4 LIVI MAKENZIE and #3 LULU WONG would both appreciate it if the other horse wasn't in the race - they are both one-dimensional speed balls. But both are capable of winning.
#1 SECOND STREET CITY intrigues me because she'll be a relatively high price and she's in great form. I will throw her in my pick 4.
R7 - Iowa Distaff Stakes (Race restricted to Fillies and Mares) - Purse $100k
I am lukewarm on #2 FLASHY AMERICAN. Her last race was dynamite, but it took her 18 starts to get through her "two other than" allowance condition. I am going to use her but I would not be surprised to see her defeated.
#4 CRUZETTE is the speed of the race and will have to be caught. Her speed figures are good enough to contend and the trainer and jock hit at a 30% rate together. #7 QUEEN LILY KAY's speed and pace figures also put her in the mix if Flashy American falters.
R8 - Iowa Sprint Handicap - Purse $125k
In possibly one the the most significant owner/trainer switches since Seabiscuit (okay, may not that many years), #3 DELAUNAY has turned into a win machine, winning seven stakes in his last eight starts, running huge figures. #2 GENTLEMAN'S BET is nearly as good, showing four wins and a third in five starts. Should be a great race for all the fans who come watch Friday night.
R9
1(1a is OK but I much prefer the #1)-8-5
PICK 4 Ticket ($36 for a 50 cent base wager)
1,3,4,5/2,4,7/2,3/1,5,8
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
Friday, February 17, 2012
Black Caviar "Backs Up" in the Lightning Stakes
Black Caviar "Backs Up"
Tonight, around 12:10 AM EST on Saturday morning FEB 18th in the U.S. (or 4:10 in the afternoon on the 18th in Melbourne, Australia), the unbeaten and largely untested BLACK CAVIAR will try to win her 19th "major circuit" race in 19 tries in a 1000 meter (nearly 5 furlong) Group One race called the Lightning Stakes. This would tie the Australian record, and would as also tie her with Zenyatta's 19 for 19 start before 'Zen' lost the Breeders' Cup Classic in 2010 to Blame. While that alone may be noteworthy, there are many particulars special to the the Australian racing scene that make tonight's race perhaps the only time she may lose in her career.
To understand Australian horse racing, one has to understand the effect of climate. In the summer the weather can get very, very hot - as hot as 120 Degrees Fahrenheit. And in the winter it can get super wet and rainy, leading to boggy tracks. Because of these extremes, the top-level horses are usually given two months off during the winter and two more months during the summer. Lesser horses are pointed to summer campaigns if they prefer harder tracks, or the winter if they prefer wet, heavy or slow tracks.
The main effect of these several 8 to 10 week breaks is twofold:
(1) Nearly all Australian horses start their campaigns coming off of long layoffs, usually in which they are not meant to be at peak fitness until the third or fourth race of their form cycle. As such, even the best horses are generally trained NOT to win their first race start off the form cycle, as trainers do not want to have their horses to peak too early. Too Black Caviar's credit, she has never lost off an extended layoff.
(2) When a trainer plots a horse's campaign, the distance to resume is usually SHORTER than a horse's best distance. As the horse proceeds with it's program, it is slowly stretched out in distance with the intent to peak in the third or fourth start.
The problem that Peter Moody, Black Caviar's trainer, has to deal with is how does he get Black Caviar FIT enough and TOUGH enough on a limited campaign of races in Australia to get her ready to compete with horses as talented as Frankel, who is the rated the top thoroughbred race horse in the world (Black Caviar is considered a close second). There are rumors coming out that Black Caviar, if fit enough, will run at Royal Ascot in in June 2012, either running in the Queen Anne stakes at a mile on opening day, or in Golden Jubilee at six furlongs six days later.
So how does this all affect Black Caviar tonight? Moody's original race preparation plan for Black Caviar was this sequence of races:
10 week break
1200m Group 2 - January 27th, 2012
1400m Group 1 - February 11th, 2012
1400m Group 1 - February 25th, 2012
Black Caviar won the Group 2 race and the Group 1 race on the 11th, BUT something strange happened. The 800m(nearly half-mile) split of the February 11th race was 51 and 3/5 fifths of a second!!! Really slow. Black Caviar did her thing and went the last 600 meters (nearly three eights of a mile) in 32 and 2 fifths without being hand ridden and won by three plus lengths. In Australia, all winning trainers and jockeys are interviewed by the media immediately after the race. Moody knew the race on February 11th was not strenuous enough to get Black Caviar ready for her European campaign, so he essentially announced a new conditioning plan, detailed below.
10 week break
1200m Group 2 - January 27th, 2012
1400m Group 1 - February 11th, 2012
1000m Group 1 - February 18th, 2012
1400m Group 1 - February 25th, 2012
The race in bold is the "new" race in the program, the Group 1 Lightning Stakes. The Lightning Stakes is generally considered the second-hardest sprint to win in Australia, and is usually won by Australia's best grass sprinters, which as a group are considered the best in the world in that category. Moody has hinted that he is largely doing this to get Black Caviar ready for Europe. Turning back in distance, especially on short rest, is something Black Caviar has never done. For people reading this article that are familiar with only North American form, this is a move similar to when Jackson Bend ran in the Kelso in October of 2011 at Belmont, and then was rerouted to the 2011 Breeders' Cup Sprint at Churchill Downs, where we showed little speed and finished a very well-beaten third as the favorite. While Black Caviar is a much better horse than Jackson Bend, the fact she rated so well in the February 11th race might mean she will not be "speedy" enough to win tonight, and at her expected odds of 1 to 9, I think the two logical horses to compete with her are Hay List and Foxwedge.
Hay List has run second to Black Caviar 4 times, having the lead in the stretch over her three of the four times they have met, but I have two speed figure sources that I use, and they both say Hay list is the second-fastest horse to run in Australia in the last 10 years. PLUS, his connections were pointing for this race. Fair Odds = 5/1.
Foxwedge is a horse that is still maturing and he ran a fantastic race down the straight at Flemington to just miss to Sepoy, who is considered another top sprinter in Australia. Foxwedge came from off the pace in his last race and I expect him do try these same tactics tonight. I think the race on March 10th, the Newmarket Handicap (which is worth more money and prestige), is ultimately Foxwedge's target, BUT if Black Caviar flounders he might be up to the task.
Fair Odds = 10/1
Tonight, around 12:10 AM EST on Saturday morning FEB 18th in the U.S. (or 4:10 in the afternoon on the 18th in Melbourne, Australia), the unbeaten and largely untested BLACK CAVIAR will try to win her 19th "major circuit" race in 19 tries in a 1000 meter (nearly 5 furlong) Group One race called the Lightning Stakes. This would tie the Australian record, and would as also tie her with Zenyatta's 19 for 19 start before 'Zen' lost the Breeders' Cup Classic in 2010 to Blame. While that alone may be noteworthy, there are many particulars special to the the Australian racing scene that make tonight's race perhaps the only time she may lose in her career.
To understand Australian horse racing, one has to understand the effect of climate. In the summer the weather can get very, very hot - as hot as 120 Degrees Fahrenheit. And in the winter it can get super wet and rainy, leading to boggy tracks. Because of these extremes, the top-level horses are usually given two months off during the winter and two more months during the summer. Lesser horses are pointed to summer campaigns if they prefer harder tracks, or the winter if they prefer wet, heavy or slow tracks.
The main effect of these several 8 to 10 week breaks is twofold:
(1) Nearly all Australian horses start their campaigns coming off of long layoffs, usually in which they are not meant to be at peak fitness until the third or fourth race of their form cycle. As such, even the best horses are generally trained NOT to win their first race start off the form cycle, as trainers do not want to have their horses to peak too early. Too Black Caviar's credit, she has never lost off an extended layoff.
(2) When a trainer plots a horse's campaign, the distance to resume is usually SHORTER than a horse's best distance. As the horse proceeds with it's program, it is slowly stretched out in distance with the intent to peak in the third or fourth start.
The problem that Peter Moody, Black Caviar's trainer, has to deal with is how does he get Black Caviar FIT enough and TOUGH enough on a limited campaign of races in Australia to get her ready to compete with horses as talented as Frankel, who is the rated the top thoroughbred race horse in the world (Black Caviar is considered a close second). There are rumors coming out that Black Caviar, if fit enough, will run at Royal Ascot in in June 2012, either running in the Queen Anne stakes at a mile on opening day, or in Golden Jubilee at six furlongs six days later.
So how does this all affect Black Caviar tonight? Moody's original race preparation plan for Black Caviar was this sequence of races:
10 week break
1200m Group 2 - January 27th, 2012
1400m Group 1 - February 11th, 2012
1400m Group 1 - February 25th, 2012
Black Caviar won the Group 2 race and the Group 1 race on the 11th, BUT something strange happened. The 800m(nearly half-mile) split of the February 11th race was 51 and 3/5 fifths of a second!!! Really slow. Black Caviar did her thing and went the last 600 meters (nearly three eights of a mile) in 32 and 2 fifths without being hand ridden and won by three plus lengths. In Australia, all winning trainers and jockeys are interviewed by the media immediately after the race. Moody knew the race on February 11th was not strenuous enough to get Black Caviar ready for her European campaign, so he essentially announced a new conditioning plan, detailed below.
10 week break
1200m Group 2 - January 27th, 2012
1400m Group 1 - February 11th, 2012
1000m Group 1 - February 18th, 2012
1400m Group 1 - February 25th, 2012
The race in bold is the "new" race in the program, the Group 1 Lightning Stakes. The Lightning Stakes is generally considered the second-hardest sprint to win in Australia, and is usually won by Australia's best grass sprinters, which as a group are considered the best in the world in that category. Moody has hinted that he is largely doing this to get Black Caviar ready for Europe. Turning back in distance, especially on short rest, is something Black Caviar has never done. For people reading this article that are familiar with only North American form, this is a move similar to when Jackson Bend ran in the Kelso in October of 2011 at Belmont, and then was rerouted to the 2011 Breeders' Cup Sprint at Churchill Downs, where we showed little speed and finished a very well-beaten third as the favorite. While Black Caviar is a much better horse than Jackson Bend, the fact she rated so well in the February 11th race might mean she will not be "speedy" enough to win tonight, and at her expected odds of 1 to 9, I think the two logical horses to compete with her are Hay List and Foxwedge.
Hay List has run second to Black Caviar 4 times, having the lead in the stretch over her three of the four times they have met, but I have two speed figure sources that I use, and they both say Hay list is the second-fastest horse to run in Australia in the last 10 years. PLUS, his connections were pointing for this race. Fair Odds = 5/1.
Foxwedge is a horse that is still maturing and he ran a fantastic race down the straight at Flemington to just miss to Sepoy, who is considered another top sprinter in Australia. Foxwedge came from off the pace in his last race and I expect him do try these same tactics tonight. I think the race on March 10th, the Newmarket Handicap (which is worth more money and prestige), is ultimately Foxwedge's target, BUT if Black Caviar flounders he might be up to the task.
Fair Odds = 10/1
Monday, January 9, 2012
Identifying Class in Claiming races
CLAIMING RACE HANDICAPPING
Claiming Races - Multiple Winners
I think that claiming races are pretty easy to beat - especially claiming races for horses that have won TWO or more races in their careers. In this type of race, basically the horse(s) that have finished the best in their most recent races at the highest claiming levels are the logical contenders. The other horses to look for are ones that ran close to the pace early, faded somewhat late, and are now DROPPING in class. Often these horses can be competitive. For example, a horse that showed good early speed at the $20,000 level before fading into 4th or 5th could be a great bet when it runs back for $10,000.
Claiming Races - Non-winners of Two Races (N2L)
These races are very popular now, because they usually get big fields and allow horses to compete for a restricted claiming price. This is especially useful if they can't compete in allowance (non-claiming) company. Unlike claiming races for multiple winners, where the quality is usually well established, the results of these N2L races can be quite erratic. Keep in mind there may be four, five, or six horses capable of winning one of these events, so don't take a short price. Horses that are unable of hitting the board in an Non-Winners of 1 other than allowance race (NW1ot or NW1x) can "drop into" a N2L claiming race and actually be the horse to beat. Watch those droppers closely!
Maiden Claiming Races
I REALLY like maiden claiming races because a lot of horses are generally not placed at the correct level of competition and can be eliminated. The class horse(s) in the race are the ones DROPPING down in class. Remember dropping from a Maiden Special Weight, or MSW (where a horse can not be claimed) into a Maiden Claiming (MDC) race is a very significant drop! Some players consider the MSW to MDC drop the "biggest drop in racing." Otherwise, focus on horses that while not winning, are dropping in class from say $40,000 to $30,000. That is a significant drop. After evaluating the class droppers, look at first time starters, especially from barns that do well with horses entered in maiden claiming races. Lastly, as the claiming tag gets cheaper and cheaper, keep in mind the equine quality and reliability will also deteriorate. Any maiden claiming race at the $15,000 level and lower is eligible for a win by a big longshot.
Claiming Races - Multiple Winners
I think that claiming races are pretty easy to beat - especially claiming races for horses that have won TWO or more races in their careers. In this type of race, basically the horse(s) that have finished the best in their most recent races at the highest claiming levels are the logical contenders. The other horses to look for are ones that ran close to the pace early, faded somewhat late, and are now DROPPING in class. Often these horses can be competitive. For example, a horse that showed good early speed at the $20,000 level before fading into 4th or 5th could be a great bet when it runs back for $10,000.
Claiming Races - Non-winners of Two Races (N2L)
These races are very popular now, because they usually get big fields and allow horses to compete for a restricted claiming price. This is especially useful if they can't compete in allowance (non-claiming) company. Unlike claiming races for multiple winners, where the quality is usually well established, the results of these N2L races can be quite erratic. Keep in mind there may be four, five, or six horses capable of winning one of these events, so don't take a short price. Horses that are unable of hitting the board in an Non-Winners of 1 other than allowance race (NW1ot or NW1x) can "drop into" a N2L claiming race and actually be the horse to beat. Watch those droppers closely!
Maiden Claiming Races
I REALLY like maiden claiming races because a lot of horses are generally not placed at the correct level of competition and can be eliminated. The class horse(s) in the race are the ones DROPPING down in class. Remember dropping from a Maiden Special Weight, or MSW (where a horse can not be claimed) into a Maiden Claiming (MDC) race is a very significant drop! Some players consider the MSW to MDC drop the "biggest drop in racing." Otherwise, focus on horses that while not winning, are dropping in class from say $40,000 to $30,000. That is a significant drop. After evaluating the class droppers, look at first time starters, especially from barns that do well with horses entered in maiden claiming races. Lastly, as the claiming tag gets cheaper and cheaper, keep in mind the equine quality and reliability will also deteriorate. Any maiden claiming race at the $15,000 level and lower is eligible for a win by a big longshot.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Whose horse is it anyway?
"The most important single central fact about a free market is that no exchange takes place unless both parties benefit."
-- Milton Friedman
A lot of racing topics are discussed on Facebook, but a certain thread took me aback today. The thread had to do with the announcement that Line of David, the longshot winner of the Gr. 1 2010 Arkansas Derby (defeating 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, among others), was retired and will stand at Spendthrift Farm in Kentucky. What struck me as odd was how several contributors to the thread DESPISED this transaction, as if they had any input on the matter. I'll just show the content of the posts without the names.
#1: Yes he's (Line of David) one of the most non exciting prospects to enter stud in a long time.
#2: He'll be in Oklahoma or South America soon enough. Personally I would cut him (geld him. i.e. remove his testicles) and try to have a nice 4 year old...
#3: Either they thought he couldn't stay racing sound or thought he only had one Grade 1 win in him. Nothing else makes much sense. So . . .Line of David and Battle Plan with, what?, 13 wins between them. Three cheers for fragility.
#1: Until the industry rejects these "one hit wonders" they will continue to leave them intact and allow them to pass along their genes. "He won't stand for a lot" in other words if your mare has ovaries that have produced a runner you get the season for free..
Wow! I wonder how many Graded stakes winners #1, #2 and/or #3 have been involved with? Obviously they "know" what the racing industry needs. My thinking is they know little, except in their own "purple-skied" world. Certainly they know how to disparage other horses, owners, farms, etc.
This deal with Line of David and Spendthrift Farm was a deal made between consenting adults, and we have to assume that the deal was beneficial to all parties. The owners of Line of David probably got a multi-million dollar deal and get to stand their horse in Kentucky, where the best mares are. Spendthrift Farm got a very good looking speed sire with a solid Grade 1 win on his resume'. Line of David gets to meet a lot of female mares. This whole agreement has win-win-win all over it.
Now, #1, #2 and #3 are certainly UNHAPPY, but the beauty of the free market is they can breed to horses like Empire Maker for $60,000 a shot and hope the horse will break it's maiden before it turns five. The beauty of the free market (and in general the world's equine markets have very few restrictions besides capital requirements) is that people get to CHOOSE what they want to do. Please don't hate on people for choosing.
-- Milton Friedman
A lot of racing topics are discussed on Facebook, but a certain thread took me aback today. The thread had to do with the announcement that Line of David, the longshot winner of the Gr. 1 2010 Arkansas Derby (defeating 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, among others), was retired and will stand at Spendthrift Farm in Kentucky. What struck me as odd was how several contributors to the thread DESPISED this transaction, as if they had any input on the matter. I'll just show the content of the posts without the names.
#1: Yes he's (Line of David) one of the most non exciting prospects to enter stud in a long time.
#2: He'll be in Oklahoma or South America soon enough. Personally I would cut him (geld him. i.e. remove his testicles) and try to have a nice 4 year old...
#3: Either they thought he couldn't stay racing sound or thought he only had one Grade 1 win in him. Nothing else makes much sense. So . . .Line of David and Battle Plan with, what?, 13 wins between them. Three cheers for fragility.
#1: Until the industry rejects these "one hit wonders" they will continue to leave them intact and allow them to pass along their genes. "He won't stand for a lot" in other words if your mare has ovaries that have produced a runner you get the season for free..
Wow! I wonder how many Graded stakes winners #1, #2 and/or #3 have been involved with? Obviously they "know" what the racing industry needs. My thinking is they know little, except in their own "purple-skied" world. Certainly they know how to disparage other horses, owners, farms, etc.
This deal with Line of David and Spendthrift Farm was a deal made between consenting adults, and we have to assume that the deal was beneficial to all parties. The owners of Line of David probably got a multi-million dollar deal and get to stand their horse in Kentucky, where the best mares are. Spendthrift Farm got a very good looking speed sire with a solid Grade 1 win on his resume'. Line of David gets to meet a lot of female mares. This whole agreement has win-win-win all over it.
Now, #1, #2 and #3 are certainly UNHAPPY, but the beauty of the free market is they can breed to horses like Empire Maker for $60,000 a shot and hope the horse will break it's maiden before it turns five. The beauty of the free market (and in general the world's equine markets have very few restrictions besides capital requirements) is that people get to CHOOSE what they want to do. Please don't hate on people for choosing.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
What are average results at the track?
IT FIGURES
I've recently become enamored with Thoro-Graph, the specialty speed-figure people. For $25 a card (or $15 for British racing), they can provide very, very good speed figures. If you are interested, they are on the "web" at thorograph.com.
AVERAGE TRAINER PERFORMANCE
In addition to its speed figures, Thoro-Graph crunches a LOT of data. Here are some FREE stats Thoro-Graph provides with their speed figure data that I found useful:
Average Trainer win % (all odds ranges, all horses) = 12.2%
Average Trainer win % for horses 10/1 or higher in odds = 3.4%
Average Trainer win % for horses coming back on 90 days or less = 12.5%
Average Trainer win % for horses coming back on over 90 days = 9.6%
Average Trainer win % for all 2yo starters = 11.9%
Average Trainer win % for all 2yo 1st starters in MSW (maiden special) races = 9.6%
Average Trainer win % for all 2yo 1st starters in MCL (maiden claiming) races = 9.1%
Average Trainer win % for all 3yo 1st starters in MSW (maiden special) races = 7.7%
Average Trainer win % for all 3yo 1st starters in MCL (maiden claiming) races = 6.9%
Average Trainer win % for 1st time TURF = 7.8%
Average Trainer win % for 1st time ROUTE = 10.4%
Average Trainer win % for Route to Sprint = 10.2%
Average Trainer win % for Sprint to Route = 10.9%
Claimers, Down in Class, win % = 13.8%
Claimers, Up in Class, win % = 9.8%
SIRE AVERAGES
All dirt runners = 12.2%
All 'synthetic' runners = 11.5%
All 'wet tracks/off tracks' = 12.4%
All turf = 11.1%
1st time turf = 7.8%
1st time starters = 8.5%
Fillies/Mares = 12.1%
Colts/Geldings = 12.1%
(So much for the female runners being more 'inconsistent'...)
I've recently become enamored with Thoro-Graph, the specialty speed-figure people. For $25 a card (or $15 for British racing), they can provide very, very good speed figures. If you are interested, they are on the "web" at thorograph.com.
AVERAGE TRAINER PERFORMANCE
In addition to its speed figures, Thoro-Graph crunches a LOT of data. Here are some FREE stats Thoro-Graph provides with their speed figure data that I found useful:
Average Trainer win % (all odds ranges, all horses) = 12.2%
Average Trainer win % for horses 10/1 or higher in odds = 3.4%
Average Trainer win % for horses coming back on 90 days or less = 12.5%
Average Trainer win % for horses coming back on over 90 days = 9.6%
Average Trainer win % for all 2yo starters = 11.9%
Average Trainer win % for all 2yo 1st starters in MSW (maiden special) races = 9.6%
Average Trainer win % for all 2yo 1st starters in MCL (maiden claiming) races = 9.1%
Average Trainer win % for all 3yo 1st starters in MSW (maiden special) races = 7.7%
Average Trainer win % for all 3yo 1st starters in MCL (maiden claiming) races = 6.9%
Average Trainer win % for 1st time TURF = 7.8%
Average Trainer win % for 1st time ROUTE = 10.4%
Average Trainer win % for Route to Sprint = 10.2%
Average Trainer win % for Sprint to Route = 10.9%
Claimers, Down in Class, win % = 13.8%
Claimers, Up in Class, win % = 9.8%
SIRE AVERAGES
All dirt runners = 12.2%
All 'synthetic' runners = 11.5%
All 'wet tracks/off tracks' = 12.4%
All turf = 11.1%
1st time turf = 7.8%
1st time starters = 8.5%
Fillies/Mares = 12.1%
Colts/Geldings = 12.1%
(So much for the female runners being more 'inconsistent'...)
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Historical Breakdown of the Belmont Stakes - Last 30 Runnings
Over the last few weeks I have been analyzing the last 30 runnings of the Belmont Stakes. Why, you may ask?
(1) Greed and envy.
While I stumble on a Belmont Stakes winner every few years, I have been much more successful selecting winners for, in order, the Preakness and the Kentucky Derby. I would liken my struggles to the student taking an ACT exam who does well on the first two-thirds of the test, but runs "out of gas" on the last section. My game is identifying brilliant speed horses up to a mile, ideally one turn mile races. That kind of horse is not what the Belmont, with its 12 furlong distance over usually dry, sandy terrain, calls for. I am hopeful that doing this years' research will put me on more winners, or at least the RIGHT winners.
(2) NYRA.com made the charts for EVERY Belmont Stakes (going back to 1867) available on its website. This made the research relatively painless. Here is the link:
http://www.belmontstakes.com/racing/belmontstakes.aspx
(3) The 30 year period I researched correlates with the last time there was a Triple Crown winner (Affirmed in 1978), and supplied enough runners to give me confidence in the data.
"B" STANDS FOR "BELMONT," BUT ALSO FOR PARIMUTUEL "BOMBS"
The Belmont Stakes has thrown a LOT of price horses in the last 30 years, starting with Temperence Hill winning in the slop in 1980 and paying $108.80 to win. Other significant longshots in the Belmont Stakes over the last 3 decades were Sarava ($142.50), Da' Tara ($79), Birdstone ($74), and Lemon Drop Kid ($61.50). As you can see, the modern era of the Belmont Stakes has produced some shock prices. The Belmont Stakes has been called the "Test of the Champion," but a better name for it might be the "Test of the Handicapper."
A TALE OF TWO TYPES OF BELMONT WINNERS
From a parimutuel perspective, there are two kinds of winner payouts - horses who won at least one race in the Triple Crown, versus a horse who did not win a Triple Crown race.
In the last 30 years, 7 horses have won the Belmont Stakes after winning at least the Kentucky Derby or Preakness. There are 23 winners over that same span that DID NOT win a Triple Crown race. Please go to my Google Docs link for the complete breakdown:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tIEKmqxdf7p18N-cvAfWdCg&output=html
What I find interesting is the huge disparity in WIN PAYOFFS between horses with Triple Crown form, and those without such form. Of the 7 horses coming off a Kentucky Derby or Preakness win, the average winning mutuel was $6.32. Not terrible, if you were able to pick the right horses on other criteria. The other 23 winners, in contrast, had an average win mutuel of $31.68, a much, much higher return! So my first recommendation on betting the Belmont stakes is picking a horse that did not win or run notably well in the Kentucky Derby or Preakness Stakes.
Now, who are the glamor horses in the 2010 running of the Belmont Stakes? There would be Ice Box from the Kentucky Derby (2nd) and First Dude from the Preakness (2nd). The crowd will make these two horses the favorites off their Triple Crown efforts, which may be a good reason to avoid them. Here is the list of the 7 horses who won a Kentucky Derby or Preakness and then the Belmont:
Swale - very nice horse
Risen Star - very, very nice horse
Hansel - very nice horse
Tabasco Cat - very nice horse
Thunder Gulch - very nice horse
Point Given - just voted into the Hall of Fame
Afleet Alex - potential Hall of Fame horse
That's a pretty imposing list. So my recommendation on using Ice Box or First Dude would be to DEMAND VALUE, because history is going against you.
THE BELMONT STAKES AND RUNNING STYLES
Lastly, I looked at this Belmont Stakes data and tried to see any patters in running style and wagering profits. I broke the running styles of horses in the Belmont into five categories:
(a) Horse on the LEAD at the 1/2 mile (second call)
(b) PRESSING the lead horses (0 to 2 lengths off the lead - second call)
(c) MIDPACK horses(2 to 4 lengths off the lead - second call)
(d) "BACK MARKERS" (the last 2 horses - second call)
(e) TOWARDS the BACK - horses between "midpack" and "last." - second call
Note: If a running of a Belmont Stakes was run with 10 or less horses "BACK MARKERS" were combined into the TOWARDS THE BACK category.
The result of this analysis is shown at the BOTTOM of my Belmont Stakes spreadsheet:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tIEKmqxdf7p18N-cvAfWdCg&output=html
I thought the results were stunning. THREE of the running styles (LEAD, MIDPACK,and TOWARDS BACK)threw profits if the player bet EVERY horse that fit that style over 30 years!!! The crowd probably overbets (see the expectation value" calculations in the spreadsheet) PRESSING and "BACK MARKERS" compared to the other styles.
SUMMARY
(1) Focus your win keys on horses that do not have Triple Crown form
(2) Don't be afraid to bet a big price. LONGSHOTS WIN THE BELMONT STAKES OFTEN!!
(3) Look at horses that you expect will be on the lead, or sitting 3 to 6 lengths off the lead (but NOT last!!!). These horses have running styles that over time pay fair value.
(1) Greed and envy.
While I stumble on a Belmont Stakes winner every few years, I have been much more successful selecting winners for, in order, the Preakness and the Kentucky Derby. I would liken my struggles to the student taking an ACT exam who does well on the first two-thirds of the test, but runs "out of gas" on the last section. My game is identifying brilliant speed horses up to a mile, ideally one turn mile races. That kind of horse is not what the Belmont, with its 12 furlong distance over usually dry, sandy terrain, calls for. I am hopeful that doing this years' research will put me on more winners, or at least the RIGHT winners.
(2) NYRA.com made the charts for EVERY Belmont Stakes (going back to 1867) available on its website. This made the research relatively painless. Here is the link:
http://www.belmontstakes.com/racing/belmontstakes.aspx
(3) The 30 year period I researched correlates with the last time there was a Triple Crown winner (Affirmed in 1978), and supplied enough runners to give me confidence in the data.
"B" STANDS FOR "BELMONT," BUT ALSO FOR PARIMUTUEL "BOMBS"
The Belmont Stakes has thrown a LOT of price horses in the last 30 years, starting with Temperence Hill winning in the slop in 1980 and paying $108.80 to win. Other significant longshots in the Belmont Stakes over the last 3 decades were Sarava ($142.50), Da' Tara ($79), Birdstone ($74), and Lemon Drop Kid ($61.50). As you can see, the modern era of the Belmont Stakes has produced some shock prices. The Belmont Stakes has been called the "Test of the Champion," but a better name for it might be the "Test of the Handicapper."
A TALE OF TWO TYPES OF BELMONT WINNERS
From a parimutuel perspective, there are two kinds of winner payouts - horses who won at least one race in the Triple Crown, versus a horse who did not win a Triple Crown race.
In the last 30 years, 7 horses have won the Belmont Stakes after winning at least the Kentucky Derby or Preakness. There are 23 winners over that same span that DID NOT win a Triple Crown race. Please go to my Google Docs link for the complete breakdown:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tIEKmqxdf7p18N-cvAfWdCg&output=html
What I find interesting is the huge disparity in WIN PAYOFFS between horses with Triple Crown form, and those without such form. Of the 7 horses coming off a Kentucky Derby or Preakness win, the average winning mutuel was $6.32. Not terrible, if you were able to pick the right horses on other criteria. The other 23 winners, in contrast, had an average win mutuel of $31.68, a much, much higher return! So my first recommendation on betting the Belmont stakes is picking a horse that did not win or run notably well in the Kentucky Derby or Preakness Stakes.
Now, who are the glamor horses in the 2010 running of the Belmont Stakes? There would be Ice Box from the Kentucky Derby (2nd) and First Dude from the Preakness (2nd). The crowd will make these two horses the favorites off their Triple Crown efforts, which may be a good reason to avoid them. Here is the list of the 7 horses who won a Kentucky Derby or Preakness and then the Belmont:
Swale - very nice horse
Risen Star - very, very nice horse
Hansel - very nice horse
Tabasco Cat - very nice horse
Thunder Gulch - very nice horse
Point Given - just voted into the Hall of Fame
Afleet Alex - potential Hall of Fame horse
That's a pretty imposing list. So my recommendation on using Ice Box or First Dude would be to DEMAND VALUE, because history is going against you.
THE BELMONT STAKES AND RUNNING STYLES
Lastly, I looked at this Belmont Stakes data and tried to see any patters in running style and wagering profits. I broke the running styles of horses in the Belmont into five categories:
(a) Horse on the LEAD at the 1/2 mile (second call)
(b) PRESSING the lead horses (0 to 2 lengths off the lead - second call)
(c) MIDPACK horses(2 to 4 lengths off the lead - second call)
(d) "BACK MARKERS" (the last 2 horses - second call)
(e) TOWARDS the BACK - horses between "midpack" and "last." - second call
Note: If a running of a Belmont Stakes was run with 10 or less horses "BACK MARKERS" were combined into the TOWARDS THE BACK category.
The result of this analysis is shown at the BOTTOM of my Belmont Stakes spreadsheet:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tIEKmqxdf7p18N-cvAfWdCg&output=html
I thought the results were stunning. THREE of the running styles (LEAD, MIDPACK,and TOWARDS BACK)threw profits if the player bet EVERY horse that fit that style over 30 years!!! The crowd probably overbets (see the expectation value" calculations in the spreadsheet) PRESSING and "BACK MARKERS" compared to the other styles.
SUMMARY
(1) Focus your win keys on horses that do not have Triple Crown form
(2) Don't be afraid to bet a big price. LONGSHOTS WIN THE BELMONT STAKES OFTEN!!
(3) Look at horses that you expect will be on the lead, or sitting 3 to 6 lengths off the lead (but NOT last!!!). These horses have running styles that over time pay fair value.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
