IOWA FESTIVAL OF RACING - Saturday, June 29

It's time for the Iowa Festival of Racing! And that means a few good horses running in shorts fields for great money. SATURDAY, JUNE 29 R6 Iowa Oaks (Restricted to 3yo Fillies). 8.5 furlongs. Grade 3. Purse $200,000. Picks: 3-10-2-5 This is is an interesting race as only one contestant, #10 FIFTYSHADESOFHAY, fits the race conditions on distance and class, but she drew the dreaded 10 post with a fairly short run into the first turn. She should go well but I think it would be a mistake to key her in the pick four because of the post. I'll put the #10 second. I am going to put #3 HITECHNOWEENIE on top. This horse appears to be "on the up" for the underrated Ken McPeek and her last two races have been fantastic. #2 SO MANY WAYS is owned by Des Moines resident/prominent ownwer Maggi Moss and this race has been the filly's target since her Fair Grounds experiment didn't go as planned. Maggi tells me that So Many Ways is feeling great and "looks happy," which makes her dangerous in this field. #5 GOLD MEDAL DANCER gets "blinkers on" after a solid Churchill route race that got a big figure. Could surprise. R7 Iowa Derby (Restricted to 3yo). 8.5 furlongs. Grade 3. Purse $250,000. Picks: 3-1 #3 BASHAAR is my bet of the night for me. The pace of the race should be quick and his jockey made a very premature move in his last race (June 1 Race 7 Prm if you want to watch it). Either of his last two dirt races wins Saturday night. #1 OUR DOUBLE PLAY will be asked for speed out of the gate, but I think he will settle second or third in the run, taking on #5 Manando at the 5/16th pole or so. This horse loves a fight and his form is best on an OFF TRACK - there is a 30% chance of rain for Saturday in the Des Moines area, so if the rains come his chances improve. #5 MANANDO has never won on regular dirt in three tries, losing ground badly in all three attempts. Also, in his only two career wins he had huge leads at the eighth pole (4 lengths in his maiden and 5 lengths in his 'one other than' allowance), so I am going to try an beat him and leave him off my pick 4. R8 Cornhusker Handicap (3yo and Up). 9.0 furlongs. Grade 3. Purse $300,000. Picks: 5-6-2-1 #5 PRAYER FOR RELIEF looked great winning the Iowa Derby two years ago...and hasn't won since. His speed figures are good and I see no reason to leave him off the ticket. #6 TAPTOWNE keeps running on the engine and putting up good speed figures. I have communicated with this trainer and he has been pointing for this race since mid-April. Would definitely not be a surprise with a win. Connections going with 'stable jock' Borel. #2 SILVER MAX ran away from outclassed turf horses on JUNE 1, but if you look at his career the horse seems to run better in the Midwest and his pedigree actually leans more to dirt than turf. Certainly can't eliminate in this spot. #1 NICKLAUS WAY is rounding into form and his dirt record is really pretty good (8-3-2-0). I am going to throw him into my pick 4 if the race falls apart with all the speed in the race. R9 Iowa-bred (3yo and up)$12,500n2L. 6.0 furlongs. Purse $18,720 Picks: 12-4 In these kind of sprint races, I want LIGHTYLY RACED horses with a relatively high win percentage (1 for 7 or better), that I think could go wire to wire. The best candidates I found were #12 DIXIE SURGE and #4 BLUE BOY BLUE. Usually there are no 'quality closers') at this level. PICK-4 ticket: 2,3,5,10/1,3/1,2,5,6/4,12 = $32 cost

Late Pick 4 (R6-R9) - Prairie Meadows - Iowa Festival - June 28, 2013

It's time for the Iowa Festival of Racing! And that means a few good horses running in shorts fields for great money. R6 - Saylorville Stakes (Race restricted to Fillies and Mares) - Purse $100k This is a contentious field, with every horse having a chance. Most of the mares know only one way to go - to the lead! As such, I will go with classy midpack-running animal #5 BEAT THE BLUES as my top pick, as she can close off fast fractions. She likes to win too - 10 wins in 24 starts while racing in top company. #4 LIVI MAKENZIE and #3 LULU WONG would both appreciate it if the other horse wasn't in the race - they are both one-dimensional speed balls. But both are capable of winning. #1 SECOND STREET CITY intrigues me because she'll be a relatively high price and she's in great form. I will throw her in my pick 4. R7 - Iowa Distaff Stakes (Race restricted to Fillies and Mares) - Purse $100k I am lukewarm on #2 FLASHY AMERICAN. Her last race was dynamite, but it took her 18 starts to get through her "two other than" allowance condition. I am going to use her but I would not be surprised to see her defeated. #4 CRUZETTE is the speed of the race and will have to be caught. Her speed figures are good enough to contend and the trainer and jock hit at a 30% rate together. #7 QUEEN LILY KAY's speed and pace figures also put her in the mix if Flashy American falters. R8 - Iowa Sprint Handicap - Purse $125k In possibly one the the most significant owner/trainer switches since Seabiscuit (okay, may not that many years), #3 DELAUNAY has turned into a win machine, winning seven stakes in his last eight starts, running huge figures. #2 GENTLEMAN'S BET is nearly as good, showing four wins and a third in five starts. Should be a great race for all the fans who come watch Friday night. R9 1(1a is OK but I much prefer the #1)-8-5 PICK 4 Ticket ($36 for a 50 cent base wager) 1,3,4,5/2,4,7/2,3/1,5,8

Hi! I have been away for a while but it's great to be back. I will be going to Prairie Meadows for the Iowa Festival of Racing on June 28 and 29 so I will try to post some insightful analysis Thursday night. Cheers, Anthony Kelzenberg