Black Caviar "Backs Up" in the Lightning Stakes

Black Caviar "Backs Up"

Tonight, around 12:10 AM EST on Saturday morning FEB 18th in the U.S. (or 4:10 in the afternoon on the 18th in Melbourne, Australia), the unbeaten and largely untested BLACK CAVIAR will try to win her 19th "major circuit" race in 19 tries in a 1000 meter (nearly 5 furlong) Group One race called the Lightning Stakes. This would tie the Australian record, and would as also tie her with Zenyatta's 19 for 19 start before 'Zen' lost the Breeders' Cup Classic in 2010 to Blame. While that alone may be noteworthy, there are many particulars special to the the Australian racing scene that make tonight's race perhaps the only time she may lose in her career.

To understand Australian horse racing, one has to understand the effect of climate. In the summer the weather can get very, very hot - as hot as 120 Degrees Fahrenheit. And in the winter it can get super wet and rainy, leading to boggy tracks. Because of these extremes, the top-level horses are usually given two months off during the winter and two more months during the summer. Lesser horses are pointed to summer campaigns if they prefer harder tracks, or the winter if they prefer wet, heavy or slow tracks.

The main effect of these several 8 to 10 week breaks is twofold:

(1) Nearly all Australian horses start their campaigns coming off of long layoffs, usually in which they are not meant to be at peak fitness until the third or fourth race of their form cycle. As such, even the best horses are generally trained NOT to win their first race start off the form cycle, as trainers do not want to have their horses to peak too early. Too Black Caviar's credit, she has never lost off an extended layoff.

(2) When a trainer plots a horse's campaign, the distance to resume is usually SHORTER than a horse's best distance. As the horse proceeds with it's program, it is slowly stretched out in distance with the intent to peak in the third or fourth start.

The problem that Peter Moody, Black Caviar's trainer, has to deal with is how does he get Black Caviar FIT enough and TOUGH enough on a limited campaign of races in Australia to get her ready to compete with horses as talented as Frankel, who is the rated the top thoroughbred race horse in the world (Black Caviar is considered a close second). There are rumors coming out that Black Caviar, if fit enough, will run at Royal Ascot in in June 2012, either running in the Queen Anne stakes at a mile on opening day, or in Golden Jubilee at six furlongs six days later.

So how does this all affect Black Caviar tonight? Moody's original race preparation plan for Black Caviar was this sequence of races:

10 week break
1200m Group 2 - January 27th, 2012
1400m Group 1 - February 11th, 2012
1400m Group 1 - February 25th, 2012

Black Caviar won the Group 2 race and the Group 1 race on the 11th, BUT something strange happened. The 800m(nearly half-mile) split of the February 11th race was 51 and 3/5 fifths of a second!!! Really slow. Black Caviar did her thing and went the last 600 meters (nearly three eights of a mile) in 32 and 2 fifths without being hand ridden and won by three plus lengths. In Australia, all winning trainers and jockeys are interviewed by the media immediately after the race. Moody knew the race on February 11th was not strenuous enough to get Black Caviar ready for her European campaign, so he essentially announced a new conditioning plan, detailed below.

10 week break
1200m Group 2 - January 27th, 2012
1400m Group 1 - February 11th, 2012
1000m Group 1 - February 18th, 2012
1400m Group 1 - February 25th, 2012

The race in bold is the "new" race in the program, the Group 1 Lightning Stakes. The Lightning Stakes is generally considered the second-hardest sprint to win in Australia, and is usually won by Australia's best grass sprinters, which as a group are considered the best in the world in that category. Moody has hinted that he is largely doing this to get Black Caviar ready for Europe. Turning back in distance, especially on short rest, is something Black Caviar has never done. For people reading this article that are familiar with only North American form, this is a move similar to when Jackson Bend ran in the Kelso in October of 2011 at Belmont, and then was rerouted to the 2011 Breeders' Cup Sprint at Churchill Downs, where we showed little speed and finished a very well-beaten third as the favorite. While Black Caviar is a much better horse than Jackson Bend, the fact she rated so well in the February 11th race might mean she will not be "speedy" enough to win tonight, and at her expected odds of 1 to 9, I think the two logical horses to compete with her are Hay List and Foxwedge.

Hay List has run second to Black Caviar 4 times, having the lead in the stretch over her three of the four times they have met, but I have two speed figure sources that I use, and they both say Hay list is the second-fastest horse to run in Australia in the last 10 years. PLUS, his connections were pointing for this race. Fair Odds = 5/1.

Foxwedge is a horse that is still maturing and he ran a fantastic race down the straight at Flemington to just miss to Sepoy, who is considered another top sprinter in Australia. Foxwedge came from off the pace in his last race and I expect him do try these same tactics tonight. I think the race on March 10th, the Newmarket Handicap (which is worth more money and prestige), is ultimately Foxwedge's target, BUT if Black Caviar flounders he might be up to the task.
Fair Odds = 10/1

Identifying Class in Claiming races

CLAIMING RACE HANDICAPPING


Claiming Races - Multiple Winners
I think that claiming races are pretty easy to beat - especially claiming races for horses that have won TWO or more races in their careers. In this type of race, basically the horse(s) that have finished the best in their most recent races at the highest claiming levels are the logical contenders. The other horses to look for are ones that ran close to the pace early, faded somewhat late, and are now DROPPING in class. Often these horses can be competitive. For example, a horse that showed good early speed at the $20,000 level before fading into 4th or 5th could be a great bet when it runs back for $10,000.


Claiming Races - Non-winners of Two Races (N2L)
These races are very popular now, because they usually get big fields and allow horses to compete for a restricted claiming price. This is especially useful if they can't compete in allowance (non-claiming) company. Unlike claiming races for multiple winners, where the quality is usually well established, the results of these N2L races can be quite erratic. Keep in mind there may be four, five, or six horses capable of winning one of these events, so don't take a short price. Horses that are unable of hitting the board in an Non-Winners of 1 other than allowance race (NW1ot or NW1x) can "drop into" a N2L claiming race and actually be the horse to beat. Watch those droppers closely!


Maiden Claiming Races
I REALLY like maiden claiming races because a lot of horses are generally not placed at the correct level of competition and can be eliminated. The class horse(s) in the race are the ones DROPPING down in class. Remember dropping from a Maiden Special Weight, or MSW (where a horse can not be claimed) into a Maiden Claiming (MDC) race is a very significant drop! Some players consider the MSW to MDC drop the "biggest drop in racing." Otherwise, focus on horses that while not winning, are dropping in class from say $40,000 to $30,000. That is a significant drop. After evaluating the class droppers, look at first time starters, especially from barns that do well with horses entered in maiden claiming races. Lastly, as the claiming tag gets cheaper and cheaper, keep in mind the equine quality and reliability will also deteriorate. Any maiden claiming race at the $15,000 level and lower is eligible for a win by a big longshot.