Tuesday, April 27, 2010

How fast does a horse have to be to win a Derby?

Starting in 2007, I came up with a different approach to look for the winner of the Kentucky Derby, using pace figures supplied by Brisnet.com. I tried to see if I could get a more accurate read on the horses running in the big race by taking BRIS' pace figures and ADDING their E2 number (pace figure to the 6 furlong mark in routes) to their Late Pace (LP) number. I then, for lack of a better term, coined the phrase "Total Energy" (abbreviated TE) to represent this E2 + LP sum.

This year's Kentucky Derby 3/1 favorite, Lookin at Lucky, would have this kind of result, taken from his Rebel Stakes at OP:

E2 = 92
LP = 108
TE = 200

By ranking every horse in the field, it is usually pretty easy to determine who's tough, and who's fluff. This method hit the 2007 Street Sense/Hard Spun exacta cold ($100 for $2, thank you very much) and the 2008 Big Brown/Eight Belles exacta, also cold, (for $141, thank you very much). Those races were on fast tracks, which may have contributed to the method's success. In 2009 the Churchill Strip was a quagmire and Mine The Bird ran the race of his life. Right now I am still hoping for a fast track (or at least "good") on Derby Day.


2010 "Total Energy" Results

Keep in mind 4 points in Total Energy is roughly one length. I will add Devil May Care's numbers when Brisnet.com releases them on Wednesday.


Horse Total Energy Race
Awesome Act 201 Gotham Stakes
Lookin At Lucky 200 Rebel Stakes
Noble's Promise 200 Rebel Stakes
Conveyance 200 Southwest Stakes
Ice Box 198 Florida Derby
American Lion 197 Illinois Derby
Super Saver 196 2009 Ky Jockey Club (2yo)
Dublin 194 Rebel Stakes
Jackson Bend 194 2009 FL-bred "In Reality" Stakes (2yo)
Line of David 194 Arkansas Derby
Dean's Kitten 193 Lane's End (Polytrack)
Stately Victor 193 Blue Grass Stakes (Polytrack)
Sidney's Candy 192 Santa Anita Derby (Pro-Ride)
Discretely Mine 192 Risen Star
Mission Impazible 192 Southwest Stakes
Endorsement 188 Sunland Derby
Paddy O'Prado 185 Blue Grass Stakes (Polytrack)

The total energy numbers of Awesome Act, Lookin at Lucky, Noble's Promise, Dublin and Conveyance were all recorded at a a mile or a mile and a sixteenth, so they all have to prove they can get a mile and a quarter on Saturday. Ice Box has a good run at nine furlongs in the Florida Derby, so it could be argued he's in good position to have a top 3 finish on the board.

I would not downgrade Sidney's Candy, or maybe even the other "synthetic surface" horses, because horses going from synthetic to dirt can improve 10 to 12 points in Total Energy (roughly 3 lengths). If Sidney improves that much he's the horse to beat on Saturday.

Monday, April 26, 2010

Reacting to Change

A lot of Derby news so far this week!

  • Derby Favorite Eskendereya was withdrawn from the Derby.
  • Rule was also withdrawn.
  • Lookin at Lucky is now the new 3/1 Derby Favorite (whether he deserves it or not).
  • Endorsement is possibly facing some physical issues.


How does a horseplayer handle these developments? Here is what I would recommend:

  • Don't lock into any horse right now.
  • Realize the remaining horses, on speed figures, are very, very close together. This is the most "wide open" Derby I can remember in my 22 years watching and betting the race.
  • Get as much information from "alternative media" as you can - twitter, facebook, DRF,
  • Horseplayernow.com and Brisnet.com live chats.
  • Try to ELIMINATE as many horses as possible without eliminating the winner!

Good luck, and if there is anything to post I will do so on Tuesday. Otherwise I will look at the field after the Wednesday afternoon draw.

Happy betting!


Anthony

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Parimutuel payoffs for the Kentucky Derby (1990 through 2009)

For some, this list will bring back memories of IRS signers and pride, others probably pain and suffering. But as they say, whoever controls the past controls the future! Let's take a look back at the last 20 years of Kentucky Derby wagering.


Kentucky Derby Payoffs 1990-2009

2009 $2 PAYOFFS - Mine That Bird WIN $103.20
EXACTA $2,074.80
TRIFECTA $41,500.60
SUPERFECTA $557,006.40

2008 $2 PAYOFFS - Big Brown WIN $6.80
EXACTA $141.60
TRIFECTA $3,445.60
SUPERFECTA $58,747.80

2007 $2 PAYOFFS - Street Sense WIN $11.80
EXACTA $101.80
TRIFECTA $440.00
SUPERFECTA $29,046.40

2006 $2 PAYOFFS - Barbaro WIN $14.20
EXACTA $587.00
TRIFECTA $11,418.40
SUPERFECTA $59,839.00

2005 $2 PAYOFFS - Giacomo WIN $102.60
EXACTA $9,814.80
TRIFECTA $133,134.80
SUPERFECTA $864,253.50

2004 $2 PAYOFFS - Smarty Jones WIN $10.20
EXACTA $65.20
TRIFECTA $987.60
SUPERFECTA $41,380.20

2003 $2 PAYOFFS - Funny Cide WIN $27.60
EXACTA $97.00
TRIFECTA $664.80
SUPERFECTA $5,591.60

2002 $2 PAYOFFS - War Emblem WIN $43.00
EXACTA $1,300.80
TRIFECTA $18,373.20
SUPERFECTA $183,529.00

2001 $2 PAYOFFS - Monarchos WIN $23.00
EXACTA $1,229.80
TRIFECTA $12,238.40
SUPERFECTA $125,973.80

2000 $2 PAYOFFS - Fusaichi Pegasus WIN $6.60
EXACTA $66.00
TRIFECTA $435.00
SUPERFECTA $3,270.80

1999 $2 PAYOFFS - Charismatic WIN $64.60
EXACTA $727.80
TRIFECTA $5,866.20
SUPERFECTA $48,031.00

1998 $2 PAYOFFS - Real Quiet WIN $18.80
EXACTA $291.80
TRIFECTA $1,221.00
SUPERFECTA $6,014.80

1997 $2 PAYOFFS - Silver Charm WIN $10.00
EXACTA $31.00
TRIFECTA $205.40
SUPERFECTA $700.00

1996 $2 PAYOFFS - Grindstone WIN $13.80
EXACTA $61.80
TRIFECTA $600.60
SUPERFECTA $11,688.40

1995 $2 PAYOFFS - Thunder Gulch WIN $51.00
EXACTA $480.00
TRIFECTA $2,099.20

1994 $2 PAYOFFS - Go for Gin WIN $20.20
EXACTA $184.80
TRIFECTA $2,351.40

1993 $2 PAYOFFS - Sea Hero WIN $27.80
EXACTA $190.60

1992 $2 PAYOFFS - Lil E. Tee WIN $35.60
EXACTA $854.40

1991 $2 PAYOFFS - Strike the Gold WIN $11.60
EXACTA $73.40

1990 $2 PAYOFFS - Unbridled WIN $23.60
EXACTA $65.80


For me, my Kentucky Derby wagering has been mixed. I started betting the Derby in 1988 (when my Proper Reality got fourth to Winning Colors), picked up Sunday Silence as a 3/1 winner in 1989 (yay!!), and over the last 21 Derbies my "top pick" has won 6 times, not an incredible number, but I am improving. Over the last seven years I have had 4 winners (Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Street Sense and Big Brown).

Interestingly, my "second picks" could have paid for a vacation home in Aruba. Check this out:
1990 - Unbridled $23.60
1995 - Thunder Gulch $51.00
1998 - Real Quiet $18.80
2001 - Monarchos $23.00
2006 - Barbaro $14.20

How I would explain my performance? My second picks are my hunch plays, where I use a little more "feel." My first picks do a lot better at Pimlico and the Preakness, where speed and brilliance is more important. Right now my top pick for "Kentucky Derby 2010" is Eskendereya and my second pick is Endorsement (the EEasy EEXacta Box?). But don't hold me to that just yet. I want to see the PPs and post draw, workouts etc. before I get too excited.

Happy Punting!

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

How does a horseplayer determine the odds?

DON'T WANNA PLAY CHALK?
Ask most horseplayers about odds and wagering startegy, and they will respond "I don't play chalk," or "I like the number 8 today in race 5 because he's 10/1 on the morning line (or ML, for short)."

While it's true that MOST favorites are overbet (their offered odds are lower than their true odds) and SOME longshots are underbet (their offered odds are higher than their true odds), many players do not know how to quantify their advantage. This blog post will hopefully explain how to quantify a player's advantage when betting to win.


CONVERTING ODDS TO A WIN PERCENTAGE
Suppose a player thinks a horse is fair odds at 4/1. That implies that he or she believes this horse will win the race 1 out of every 5 times, or a win probability of 0.20 (1/5 = 0.20).

In general, the win probability for a horse at THEIR TRUE ODDS, not the ML, is:
1/(true odds + 1).

Example: A player thinks a horse's true odds to win a race is 9/1. This implies the probability to win a race is 1/(9 + 1) = 1/10 = 0.10.

Why is this important? Because the player can now quantify his or her edge (if one exists) if the crowd offers HIGHER odds on their preferred horse.

Example: Say that a horse at Saratoga is 9/1 on the player's personal odds line but is 13/1 on the board with 3 minutes to post (not really that rare of a scenario). We saw above that the 9/1 horse has a probability of winning of 0.10. That means the horse has a probability of losing of 0.90 (either the horse wins or loses, right? All the total probabilities, win and lose, in a race for each individual horse have to add to 1.0). So what would be the player's edge in this case?

If the player bets $1 to win, the "expected win return" is ($1)*(13)*(0.10) = $1.30
If the player bets $1 to win, the "expected loss return" is (-$1)*(0.90) = -$0.90
If we add the win to the loss, then we have a POSITIVE EXPECTATION of $0.40.

In other words, IF the player is a good handicapper, and only bets when the odds on the board are HIGHER than the true odds, the player has the ability to grind out a profit. If the player bets on UNDERLAYS (short priced favorites that don't have advantages in speed and/or pace figures, for example), they can't "handicap their way to profits."


HOW MUCH SHOULD A PLAYER BET?
The bet size is CRITICAL. If the player bets too much of their bankroll on any one race, short-term financial ruin (or worse) can be the result.

A mathematician named Kelly came up with the KELLY CRITERION, which is a guide to determining how much to bet on a single wager. It works best with win betting but can be adjusted to suit any parimutuel situation IF the risk is known.

The Kelly Criterion is an estimate of how much of a fraction of bankroll to wager on any one race. Of course, the player should NEVER wager on any event that has a negative expectation (i.e. underlays).

The formula for the Kelly Criterion is as follows:

Fraction of bankroll wagered = (Positive expectation)/(True odds of horse)

Going back to our Saratoga horse, the positive expectation was $0.40 and the true odds were 9/1. So the Kelly Criterion would be 0.40/9 = 0.0444

What does this number tell us? If the player is an EFFECTIVE AND CONSISTENT handicapper, over the long-term he or she can bet roughly 4% of betting capital on the Saratoga horse with little fear of "tapping out" because of over-betting their advantage.

Suppose the player had $120 in his wallet for wagering and that represents his total bankroll. Then the ideal bet size on the Saratoga horse would be ($120)*(0.0444) = $5.328. Rounding down to the nearest dollar, the player should wager $5 on the Saratoga horse to win.

Now let's suppose the player won the race at 13/1. The player would get back $70, but $5 was wagered originally, so the "profit" on the bet was $65. This means the player now has a bankroll of $185 ($120 + $65 in profit). In the next good betting race this $185 is the new bankroll total which sets the wagering amount. Also, the next betting race will probably have a different Kelly Criterion (it varies every race, depending on the positive expectation of the next horse and the horse's true odds).

Sunday, April 11, 2010

How to play the Pick 3

There once was a time when tracks only offered one or two pick 3 wagers in one day. The pool size for these pick 3s was pretty good, and there was no competition for the bettors' money from the early and late pick 4s, or rolling doubles, like we have now. For the most part, just HITTING the pick 3 during this era meant a nice, profitible day at the track, and possibly a SCORE.

Today, however, the "rolling" pick 3 pools are among the smaller pools at any track (especially compared to the trifecta pools), and the returns on the pick 3 typically are not quite as lucrative. Unfortunately, I have a healthy love of the Pick 3, and I like to make money using the wager.

Here are some ideas my buddies at the track and I have shared over the years for successful pick 3 playing.

(1) Try to limit your play to one or two pick threes per day per track.

(2) Don't UNDERBET a pick 3 play. A good pick 3 strategy that includes some long shots will have 32 to 40 combinations.

(3) Look for races featuring short priced favorites that may be highly vulnerable (horses coming off layoffs of 90 days or more, incompetent human connections, suspicious class droppers, horses making their debut on a new surface and/or distance), especially in they START the first race of the sequence. The crowd loves to single short-priced horses in the pick 3, an if the favorite goes down it's an opportunity to get some of the crowd's money.

(4) In the same race as the weak and/or overbet favorite, look for horses with odds of 5/1 or higher that can "kick start" nice pick 3 payoff.

(5) In maiden and maiden claiming races, don't be afraid to use horses that are lightly raced or making their debuts, EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT BET OR FAVORED ON THE MORNING LINE. If the experienced runners in a maiden race are poor, they probably won't get any better without a class drop. When possible, use "speed figure pars" in maiden and maiden claiming races to determine which experienced horses can possibly be kept off your ticket(s). Be very, very wary of betting maiden and maiden horses that run close seconds and thirds often. These horses are always underlays unless they drop in class.

In short, to succeed with the pick 3, handicap well, have enough capital to make the correct wager, and focus on beating short-priced favorites that have negative angles going against them.

Happy wagering!


The Prophet