Not everyone likes betting on 2 year olds. These types of races have few horses with starters in them (in fact many races are filled with first time starters - FTS), and evaluating pedigrees of race horses can confound experienced players, much less the novice fan. Despite these challenges, I can attest I do very well playing 2 year olds every year. I have a basic method that combines QUANTITATIVE and QUALITATIVE analysis of experienced runners and FTS.
2YO RACES - QUANTITATIVE FACTORS
(1) Trainer stats - some trainers are very successful winning with a FTS. Most data services will provide this information. A guideline I use is a trainer that can win with 14% of his FTS is a threat to win with a FTS in today's race.
(2) Pedigree information - I uses Brisnet.com's products a lot, and they are really effective at identifying which horses have a pedigree to "win early" in its first or second start. Using Brisnet.com's data I can identify if a sire (father of the runner) and damsire (father of the MOTHER of the runner) both produce 14% winners or more from FTS. A higher percentage of winners from FTS, the more likely the combination produces a quick juvenile. Another stat I look at is the dam (mother of the runner). If a dam has produced 50% or greater 2yo winners from 2yo starters that also implies today's runner could be quick. Lastly, a good rule of thumb for "win early" breeding is look for a sire and damsire that both had sprinter/miler speed when they raced.
2YO RACES - QUALITATIVE FACTORS
(1) Workout Pattern - I look at the initial work first, to see if the horse "breezed" well. A good initial breeze would be 36 3/5 or faster, but 37 1/5 would be OK. This demonstrates that the FTS has some talent. Then, the FTS should work every 6 to 7 days, leading up to race day with NO BREAKS in its worktab. Lastly, I want to see some 4 furlong bullet or near bullet works mixed in with some 5 furlong works for stamina.
(2) Trainer touches - some trainers have a special move getting young horses ready to race. Steve Asmussen has two notable moves - any FTS he trains that breezes 5 furlongs in 1:01 3/5 or less in its worktab is most likely a serious runner, and he works a LOT of horses at Sam Houston, even ones he unleashes at Saratoga in July and August.
(3) Sales Prices - generally yearling sales prices are meaningless in trying to predict success in sprint baby races, so I would submit not using yearling prices as a benchmark. I can recall a 2yo MSW at Saratoga a year or two back where a $50,000 yearling THRASHED a $250,000 yearling. 2 year old buys, on the other hand, are extremely dangerous. Why? Because 2yo buys have another 6 to 8 months to develop, they are thoroughly vetted, and they have to work out under a STOPWATCH. Expensive 2 year old buys ($250,000 and up) almost always can run. Cheaper 2 year old buys ($50,000 to $245,000) often times can be overlooked at the windows and should be considered live animals.
(4) Kentucky-trained 2 year olds at Saratoga - usually the older, arguably classier Belmont-based horses win more than their fair share at Saratoga, compared to the Kentucky horses (Steve Crist of DRF.com tracks this on his blog every year). However, the Kentucky-trained 2 year olds win quite often and should be considered a threat in every 2 year old race at the Spa.
(5) Number of starts - 2 year old horses that don't break their maidens by their third start are huge under performers at the windows. They tend to lose by narrow margins, so their odds will be low, but it is my experience you are better off with a horse making its first or second start than betting on a potential "career maiden."
(6) First year sires - look for "hot new sires" that are getting winners, especially sires that are getting GOOD PRICES. Paying attention to successful sires would have put a player on Wildcat Heir in 2009 and Medaglia d'Oro (Rachel Alexandra's sire) in 2008. A sire that I think has a lot of potential for 2010 is Bluegrass Cat.
Monday, May 17, 2010
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Which bets are the right bets?
TO BET, OR NOT TOO BET THE DIME SUPERFECTA
As I asked myself which bets are the right bets, I came to realize I didn't know the answer. But I decided to try to figure it out.
Generally horse racing bets (plays) are either "Horizontal" (picking winners in consecutive races) or "Vertical" (picking horses in exact order of one race as they cross the finish line). This blog post will focus on Vertical plays.
Here are the main types of vertical plays:
(1) Win - The first horse to cross the line first is declared the winner. This is a relatively simple Vertical play.
(2) Exacta - Pick the winner AND the second place horse, in exact order.
(3) Trifecta - Pick the top THREE finishers, in exact order.
(4) Superfecta - Pick the top FOUR finishers, in exact order.
(A DIME Superfecta is a Superfecta wager made on a dime per combination basis)
I reviewed the results of 52 races run over Kentucky Derby weekend - April 29 through May 1 from Churchill Downs that had superfecta wagering (30 races), and April 30 through May 2 at Belmont Park that had superfecta wagering (22 races), for a sample of 52 races. To compare the results on the same basis, I made a few assumptions:
(A) The base wager on every race would be $12 ($12 to win on every race, compared to a $4 exacta key over 3 horses, compared to a $1 trifecta play with 12 combinations, compared to a "Dime super" with 120 combinations).
(B) The returns for each scenario in (A) would be added up, then adjusted for degree of difficulty - Example: exactas are harder to hit than win bets, trifectas are harder to hit than exactas. It will be assumed that trifectas and dime supers have the same degree of difficulty.
Results (total adjusted return):
$12 to win on each of the 52 winners = $4,119.0
$4 exacta (wheeled over 3 horses), every race successful = $6,306.48
$1 trifecta (wheeled over 3 horses, then 4 horses), every race successful = $7,948.82
Dime super, every race successful = $5,392.742
Note the trifecta had the highest return by a fair margin, then the exacta wheel play. Win wagering had the lowest return. This indicates that exacta and trifecta wagers are the best Vertical plays to focus on.
When should a player decide to play the trifecta or the exacta? Using the trifecta, the payoffs are greatly reduced if the favorite wins, so the best time to play the trifecta is then the favorite is not your top selection. The exacta should be used if the favorite is not expected to be in the top two positions, OR the player has a very strong opinion on which horses will complete the 1-2 finish.
WHAT ABOUT THE SUPERFECTA?
There was a strong correlation on when to play the superfecta - when the player thinks the favorite will finish out of the TOP FOUR POSITIONS. Even a favorite running 3rd or 4th can absolutely kill the superfecta payoff. If the favorite figures to finish in the top 4, try the trifecta instead, as the trifecta will usually pay better than the Dime super.
As I asked myself which bets are the right bets, I came to realize I didn't know the answer. But I decided to try to figure it out.
Generally horse racing bets (plays) are either "Horizontal" (picking winners in consecutive races) or "Vertical" (picking horses in exact order of one race as they cross the finish line). This blog post will focus on Vertical plays.
Here are the main types of vertical plays:
(1) Win - The first horse to cross the line first is declared the winner. This is a relatively simple Vertical play.
(2) Exacta - Pick the winner AND the second place horse, in exact order.
(3) Trifecta - Pick the top THREE finishers, in exact order.
(4) Superfecta - Pick the top FOUR finishers, in exact order.
(A DIME Superfecta is a Superfecta wager made on a dime per combination basis)
I reviewed the results of 52 races run over Kentucky Derby weekend - April 29 through May 1 from Churchill Downs that had superfecta wagering (30 races), and April 30 through May 2 at Belmont Park that had superfecta wagering (22 races), for a sample of 52 races. To compare the results on the same basis, I made a few assumptions:
(A) The base wager on every race would be $12 ($12 to win on every race, compared to a $4 exacta key over 3 horses, compared to a $1 trifecta play with 12 combinations, compared to a "Dime super" with 120 combinations).
(B) The returns for each scenario in (A) would be added up, then adjusted for degree of difficulty - Example: exactas are harder to hit than win bets, trifectas are harder to hit than exactas. It will be assumed that trifectas and dime supers have the same degree of difficulty.
Results (total adjusted return):
$12 to win on each of the 52 winners = $4,119.0
$4 exacta (wheeled over 3 horses), every race successful = $6,306.48
$1 trifecta (wheeled over 3 horses, then 4 horses), every race successful = $7,948.82
Dime super, every race successful = $5,392.742
Note the trifecta had the highest return by a fair margin, then the exacta wheel play. Win wagering had the lowest return. This indicates that exacta and trifecta wagers are the best Vertical plays to focus on.
When should a player decide to play the trifecta or the exacta? Using the trifecta, the payoffs are greatly reduced if the favorite wins, so the best time to play the trifecta is then the favorite is not your top selection. The exacta should be used if the favorite is not expected to be in the top two positions, OR the player has a very strong opinion on which horses will complete the 1-2 finish.
WHAT ABOUT THE SUPERFECTA?
There was a strong correlation on when to play the superfecta - when the player thinks the favorite will finish out of the TOP FOUR POSITIONS. Even a favorite running 3rd or 4th can absolutely kill the superfecta payoff. If the favorite figures to finish in the top 4, try the trifecta instead, as the trifecta will usually pay better than the Dime super.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
What's is YOUR takeout at the track?
THE TRACK TAKE
How familiar are people with the term "track takeout?" TRACK TAKEOUT is the amount of wagering money, following the state regulations where the track is located, removed by the track before the winning bettors are paid. A higher track takeout means that the winners get a smaller remaining percentage of the pool. Each pool has its own level of takeout. Generally 15% is the takeout for win, place and show bets; daily doubles and exactas have a 20% takeout; and more complicated exotic wagers have 25% takeout.
While I agree with all players that race tracks should experiment with their business models to find out if their revenue could be enhanced with a lower takeout structure (some economists point out that lowering track takeout could actually INCREASE revenue for the tracks, because people would get more money back and they could "re-bet" their extra winnings back into the pools), but today I am going to propose some ideas in keeping more of YOUR dollars.
LOWERING YOUR PERSONAL TAKEOUT
I think following these suggestions will help you wager better at the races.
(1) Try to do your own research and develop new concepts for your betting.
What new or innovative research do you do that separates you from the betting crowd? Do you do pedigree research? How about looking at trainer stats or trips? If you are starting out as a handicapper, have you looked at reading some of the better authors? I would recommend Derek Simon (of YouBet.com), Jeremey Plonk and Joe Kristufek (of Horseplayernow.com), Cary Fotias, Tom Brohammer (the book "Modern Pace Handicapping"), and Steven Crist (the book "Exotic Betting," and Steve's blog at DRF.com).
(2) Watch video replays
Can you determine what a good trip was, versus a bad trip? How does PACE and POST POSITION affect trip? Do you know where to find good video replays? Some tracks like Tampa Bay Downs post all their video replays on the internet for free. Most tracks put their races on sites like RaceReplays.com - 100 free replays for $12.95 a month. Bloodhorse.com has FREE replays for all maiden, allowance and stakes races in the US and Woodbine.
(3) Don't jump on the bandwagon
The broad consensus before the Kentucky Derby was Lookin at Lucky was the best horse in the Kentucky Derby field. Why that was so was unclear, as he had never run fast enough to be considered a clear choice. Try to look for angles on horses that run COUNTER to public opinion - that's the only way to make money in our game.
(4) Have the right amount of capital to make the bet
If you want to play a serious pick 6, consider this advice from Bob Neumier: "If you have $1,000 and you want to play the pick 6, find a friend with another $1,000 and combine resources for the bet." Advanced exotic bets are fun, but require a fair amount of capital to play. If you are low on capital focus on win and exacta betting.
(5) Don't bet money you don't really want to lose
This isn't an anti-gambling rant, but in my experience when people get emotional they make poor wagering decisions, usually by "holding back," rather than playing the right horse at the right time.
Happy punting!
How familiar are people with the term "track takeout?" TRACK TAKEOUT is the amount of wagering money, following the state regulations where the track is located, removed by the track before the winning bettors are paid. A higher track takeout means that the winners get a smaller remaining percentage of the pool. Each pool has its own level of takeout. Generally 15% is the takeout for win, place and show bets; daily doubles and exactas have a 20% takeout; and more complicated exotic wagers have 25% takeout.
While I agree with all players that race tracks should experiment with their business models to find out if their revenue could be enhanced with a lower takeout structure (some economists point out that lowering track takeout could actually INCREASE revenue for the tracks, because people would get more money back and they could "re-bet" their extra winnings back into the pools), but today I am going to propose some ideas in keeping more of YOUR dollars.
LOWERING YOUR PERSONAL TAKEOUT
I think following these suggestions will help you wager better at the races.
(1) Try to do your own research and develop new concepts for your betting.
What new or innovative research do you do that separates you from the betting crowd? Do you do pedigree research? How about looking at trainer stats or trips? If you are starting out as a handicapper, have you looked at reading some of the better authors? I would recommend Derek Simon (of YouBet.com), Jeremey Plonk and Joe Kristufek (of Horseplayernow.com), Cary Fotias, Tom Brohammer (the book "Modern Pace Handicapping"), and Steven Crist (the book "Exotic Betting," and Steve's blog at DRF.com).
(2) Watch video replays
Can you determine what a good trip was, versus a bad trip? How does PACE and POST POSITION affect trip? Do you know where to find good video replays? Some tracks like Tampa Bay Downs post all their video replays on the internet for free. Most tracks put their races on sites like RaceReplays.com - 100 free replays for $12.95 a month. Bloodhorse.com has FREE replays for all maiden, allowance and stakes races in the US and Woodbine.
(3) Don't jump on the bandwagon
The broad consensus before the Kentucky Derby was Lookin at Lucky was the best horse in the Kentucky Derby field. Why that was so was unclear, as he had never run fast enough to be considered a clear choice. Try to look for angles on horses that run COUNTER to public opinion - that's the only way to make money in our game.
(4) Have the right amount of capital to make the bet
If you want to play a serious pick 6, consider this advice from Bob Neumier: "If you have $1,000 and you want to play the pick 6, find a friend with another $1,000 and combine resources for the bet." Advanced exotic bets are fun, but require a fair amount of capital to play. If you are low on capital focus on win and exacta betting.
(5) Don't bet money you don't really want to lose
This isn't an anti-gambling rant, but in my experience when people get emotional they make poor wagering decisions, usually by "holding back," rather than playing the right horse at the right time.
Happy punting!
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